Unknown enemy: preparing the world against potential deliberate biothreats

Not all emergencies are the same, but they share one single trait: their highly unpredictable nature. This means they can occur at any time, catching societies off guard and potentially leading to catastrophic consequences. 

Global challenges including urbanisation, climate change, political instability and the steady rise in technology are key drivers behind today’s diverse range of hazardous events.  

In 2024 alone, the world has grappled with numerous crises – from deadly Atlantic and Pacific storms to typhoons in Southeast Asia and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. While they may differ in nature, such diverse challenges often have similar impacts, among which the outbreak of infectious diseases, disruptions to food chains, and inevitable economic losses. The cascading effects of extreme events also underscore the interconnectedness of our ecosystems, where human, animal and environmental crises are not only linked but sometimes exacerbate each other.  

Keeping up with a changing world 

Data collected by EM-DAT suggests that the number of severe disasters increases each year. To further complicate the current hazard space, the risk of intentionally released or engineered pathogens also looms large, given their low cost and accessibility.

So, what if the next global crisis was not a natural occurrence, but rather something deliberately caused? Terrorists with a political agenda, individuals driven by extremist ideology and other actors with malicious intentions can be drawn to the use of diseases as a powerful weapon, posing a real danger to societies. 

Biological threats – natural, intentional or accidental – could destabilise economies dependent on agriculture and threaten biodiversity, killing millions of human and animal lives. On the scale of disasters, deliberate biothreats are likely to rank at the top, given their destructive potential.  

Deliberate bio-attacks involving animal diseases may not be an everyday occurrence, but imagining “the unimaginable” can allow us to prepare for an unforeseeable future. While we cannot fully predict extreme events with accuracy and precision – let alone prevent disasters from happening in the first place – there is something we can do: change how we prepare for them. 

Combatting biothreats: The past informs the future 

Expanding capacity across the spectrum of biological threats is more pressing than ever. Yet, there is evidence that we are not quite well prepared for them. The 2021 Global Health Security (GHS) Index score averaged just 38.9, highlighting the fundamental weakness of global preparedness for epidemics and pandemic.

As global resilience to hazards continues to be tested, it is important that we look back at the past and reflect on emergencies caused by extreme events of various nature. In fact, they can provide valuable lessons and inform the actions needed to combat deliberate biothreats. The strategies we use to respond to hazardous events can be powerful tools in preparing for deliberate biothreats. A striking example is offered by the early warning systems adopted to prepare for weather and climate-related disasters, which can also be applied to biothreats.

A radical shift in approach

Responding to extreme events of different nature highlights a critical takeaway: emergency management and disaster risk reduction in animal health is a shared responsibility across multiple stakeholders. If health agencies, government authorities and security forces operate in silos, there are high chances for response efforts to be fragmented, slow, or largely ineffective. In stark contrast, multisectoral collaboration—bringing together experts from health, security, agriculture, and other sectors—can ensure a more holistic response that addresses all aspects of a potential biothreat. 

Today’s fast-moving world calls for an ‘all-hazards approach’ to preparedness. Embracing this vision can allow for effective emergency management, eventually increasing the resilience of vulnerable communities in the face of uncertainty. At the same time, collaboration across key actors underpins preparedness against biological threats, regardless of their origins.  Through working with Partners, WOAH is committed to preparing global communities for critical events and advocates for better preparedness as well as response strategies among its Members. 

Building on this, the Organisation has created a series of short documentaries that illustrate the impact of extreme events – natural, climate change-driven or man-made ones. The experience in the field offered the unique opportunity to observe lessons in emergency management and disaster risk reduction that could be applied to real-world cases of deliberate biothreats – an ever-growing threat and  challenging phenomenon to witness.  

Supported by funding from Global Affairs Canada Weapons Threat Reduction Program, the project culminated in an interactive, multimedia long-form article (scrolly-telling). This article illustrates different crisis scenarios and puts forward solutions to enhance preparedness against any type of biothreats. Its central message is clear: preparedness against any type of biothreats – including those that are intentionally released – is vital to ensuring global security.

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Unknown Enemy: preparing against biothreats

Explore an interactive article on crisis scenarios and proposed solutions to strengthen biothreat preparedness.

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